Will SMS revenues shrink for telecom operators?

The one thing that has changed in the mobile landscape is the increased use of Smartphone around the globe. Though the overall mobilephone market suffered during 2011-2012, the Smartphone market grew 42.5% Year-Over-Year, from Q1-2011and Q1-2012. Thanks to the increased competition (making these phones affordable as well) and increased usability of these devices, the trend doesn’t seem to slow down. An obvious change in Smartphones as comparison to feature/dumb phones is the possibility to use apps for various purposes including that of messaging and voice services (voice-over-ip). So, the question is, will this eventually lead to shrinking SMS revenues for telcos?

Are users texting SMS lesser than before? Well, it seems so; at least the trend is in that direction. The increased use of social media, FB, Twitter etc., in Smartphone is increasing rapidly. People share more "junk/spam" via these apps than SMS or email. For e.g. for most "sharing" of info people use these media instead of SMS. SMS is more for sensible texting than sharing of information. The over-the-top apps are increasingly becoming popular as well even for "sensible" messaging. For e.g. Sarita (my wife) and I normally text via whatsapp. It’s simple to use and we don’t pay anything to anyone for using it as we mostly use these services in a wifi/WLAN environment. In fact, Financial Times recently reported a trend in this direction warning operators to find new ways of profit from data provision.

Long way for a catch up though: On the other hand, SMS continues to enjoy mass usage in the near-term. Statistically, SMS usage is today about 4.2B+ while Smartphone usage is yet to hit the billion mark. Many of the services across the world are based on SMS messaging as well. Moreover, the developing nations are yet to catch up on the use of apps (and Smartphones), which continues to make SMS a revenue making option for operators near term.

While I predict a long term decline in SMS usage (and hence revenues for operators via SMS), I believe SMS will continue being a revenue making machine for operators near-term. Surely, KPIs focussing on revenues-per-SMS etc will soon become obsolete and move more towards provisioning of data. What are your thoughts?

Things that worked for me may not work for you

I recently read an old article by Nicolas carr on the Google Enigma, pretty much a critique on the hype created around successful companies by business publications, management academics, writers and authors. [A book on Nokia's strategic agility, is another example, :-) ] The article may be yet another attempt to make one wiser with the basic paradigm that successful business model innovation may not necessarily be repeatable. Simply put, "things-that-worked-for-us-may-not-work-for-you".

What interested me the most is Nicolas' conclusion on the "mutually inclusive" three qualities common to all successful companies, namely:
* They hire talented and clever people and give them room to excel
* They measure progress and results rigorously and make course adjustments quickly
* They remain disciplined in their work and their spending; curbing their instinct to do too much at once (Exceptionally relevant for product development?)

A clear fourth one from me is:
* They win their stakeholders/shareholders confidence

The above qualities are potentially inclusive. It is so because each of it, on its own merit, cannot bring forth a successful business. For example, what happens if we overemphasise one over the other? What if we only have talented people without key performance index (KPI) measurements in place or vice versa? Your successful business model turns into a strategic risk shunting the possible success its built on.

Whats essential is to be aware of the hypes and not to get carried away with "tried-and-tested" successful business models. It is important to develop the ability to make quick adjustments, be strategically agile and be able to continously recoup your business based on the market dynamics.

Well.... Perhaps I am wrong! What we are today is based on what we did in the past, our history!  And history is written by the winners; ALWAYS! Thoughts?

Gen next holographic TVs on the cards?

Perhaps I am late to learn about holographic shows (Thanks Lauri!), but the more I learn abt it, the more fascinating its becoming! From small scale virtual presenters (An example), holograms are taking over entertainment and the way they are broadcasted. For e.g. late last year, a system was used to put live performers on stage along side holograms, side by side. If you haven't seen Celine's new show, don't forget to check it out, it's jaw dropping!!!

On a bit of further searching, it seems generation next holographic TVs are already in the cards. And by abt 2017, these will be commericially available to! Check this out: http://holographic-tv.org/

Amazing!!! Isnt it? Naturally, similar commericially viable, cost effective innovations will happen in holographic video-conferencing, advertising, entertainments, movies etc. as well. On further thoughts, will this effectively change the way we travel and do business as well?

Ultrabook? I am confused, are you?

We've all been lately hearing much on ultrabooks, different companies using the term pretty much to suit their brand of products. I was hoping CES 2012 to give a better picture, but it confused me even further! I thought it was just me and was kinda feeling stupid; then I came across this news article today (retrieved on 14-Jan) and thought to share with you all. Sigh! Thanks, I am not alone, Finally!

To summarise, the popular believe on what an Ultrabook is thats its a thin, light notebook with SSD (solid state devices) are ultrabooks. However, at the end of the day, it very much depend on how the OEMs wish to market their respective products.

Confused? Guess, we have to wait until the industry finetunes to find a common a definition. :-)