Will SMS revenues shrink for telecom operators?

The one thing that has changed in the mobile landscape is the increased use of Smartphone around the globe. Though the overall mobilephone market suffered during 2011-2012, the Smartphone market grew 42.5% Year-Over-Year, from Q1-2011and Q1-2012. Thanks to the increased competition (making these phones affordable as well) and increased usability of these devices, the trend doesn’t seem to slow down. An obvious change in Smartphones as comparison to feature/dumb phones is the possibility to use apps for various purposes including that of messaging and voice services (voice-over-ip). So, the question is, will this eventually lead to shrinking SMS revenues for telcos?

Are users texting SMS lesser than before? Well, it seems so; at least the trend is in that direction. The increased use of social media, FB, Twitter etc., in Smartphone is increasing rapidly. People share more "junk/spam" via these apps than SMS or email. For e.g. for most "sharing" of info people use these media instead of SMS. SMS is more for sensible texting than sharing of information. The over-the-top apps are increasingly becoming popular as well even for "sensible" messaging. For e.g. Sarita (my wife) and I normally text via whatsapp. It’s simple to use and we don’t pay anything to anyone for using it as we mostly use these services in a wifi/WLAN environment. In fact, Financial Times recently reported a trend in this direction warning operators to find new ways of profit from data provision.

Long way for a catch up though: On the other hand, SMS continues to enjoy mass usage in the near-term. Statistically, SMS usage is today about 4.2B+ while Smartphone usage is yet to hit the billion mark. Many of the services across the world are based on SMS messaging as well. Moreover, the developing nations are yet to catch up on the use of apps (and Smartphones), which continues to make SMS a revenue making option for operators near term.

While I predict a long term decline in SMS usage (and hence revenues for operators via SMS), I believe SMS will continue being a revenue making machine for operators near-term. Surely, KPIs focussing on revenues-per-SMS etc will soon become obsolete and move more towards provisioning of data. What are your thoughts?

Gen next holographic TVs on the cards?

Perhaps I am late to learn about holographic shows (Thanks Lauri!), but the more I learn abt it, the more fascinating its becoming! From small scale virtual presenters (An example), holograms are taking over entertainment and the way they are broadcasted. For e.g. late last year, a system was used to put live performers on stage along side holograms, side by side. If you haven't seen Celine's new show, don't forget to check it out, it's jaw dropping!!!

On a bit of further searching, it seems generation next holographic TVs are already in the cards. And by abt 2017, these will be commericially available to! Check this out: http://holographic-tv.org/

Amazing!!! Isnt it? Naturally, similar commericially viable, cost effective innovations will happen in holographic video-conferencing, advertising, entertainments, movies etc. as well. On further thoughts, will this effectively change the way we travel and do business as well?

Ultrabook? I am confused, are you?

We've all been lately hearing much on ultrabooks, different companies using the term pretty much to suit their brand of products. I was hoping CES 2012 to give a better picture, but it confused me even further! I thought it was just me and was kinda feeling stupid; then I came across this news article today (retrieved on 14-Jan) and thought to share with you all. Sigh! Thanks, I am not alone, Finally!

To summarise, the popular believe on what an Ultrabook is thats its a thin, light notebook with SSD (solid state devices) are ultrabooks. However, at the end of the day, it very much depend on how the OEMs wish to market their respective products.

Confused? Guess, we have to wait until the industry finetunes to find a common a definition. :-)

Why is "Cloud" Computing called "cloud"?

Many have asked me how and when the term "Cloud" came in place in Cloud computing? Why didnt we just didn't call it Internet Computing or Univesal Computing etc?

"Cloud" was meant to represent a network of computers outside your knowledge domain. Perhaps its a result of casual drawings by engineers to represent the Internet. I did a bit of search and the closest, convincing thought I found here. Read on. :-)

Any thoughts?

2020 B2B business model: Protecting consumers from being mere products

Noted security expert Schneier in his Dec'10 blog [1] said "We’re not Google’s customers; we’re Google’s product that they sell to their customers". How true this can be? Though Google is striving hard to recoup from their Gmail disappearing act [2], it has come to light how un-protected consumer (or product?) interests are in advertisement-based B2B business models where the primary users are not customers of the company making the money. They are very much products which are "sold" to "real" customers who actually pays for the service. Btw, this is not just about Google; this is about any similar B2B business models and there are plenty of them.

The business model is solid; the consumer protection acts are also fairly in shape. Perhaps the question is about a lack of mechanisms to protect the so called "products"? Well, being a capitalist I don’t like too many barriers in making money. But on the other hand, the "products" we are talking about are the pillar to this successful business model and protecting their interests are essential in sustaining this model. This is, hence, not a mere regulatory issue.

Today, our private data (personal info, location data etc) is more often shared without our knowledge. The decisions are very much in the hands of private companies/individuals which make me wonder how complex it gets as we go towards 2020 with multiple subscriptions, multiple devices, all interconnected and possibly displayed in social networks (e.g. Facebook). Hence, a good dialog between the regulatory bodies, technology companies, academia etc. is essential to stop this complex web turning to a crisis with possible misuse by not-so-ethical-hackers, terrorists and the like.

In short, for the regulators, there is a need to redefine the very definition of consumers and subsequently the consumer acts to safeguard the interest of 2020-consumers (or "products"). For the cloud providers, it’s essential to own up their failures regarding data security, privacy etc. of their so called "products" and proactively take adequate measures in this regard. It’s certainly insufficient to merely be sorry when things go out of hand. May be, the most successful cloud/B2B company of future is the one which provides this differentiation.

What do you think? Can the world survive being just B2B in 2020 ignoring the masses?

Some References:
[1] http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2010/12/security_in_202.html
[2] http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/gmails-disappearing-act-blame-the-storage-software-update/45445

On Nokia-MS partnership: Being a Socialistic Capitalist!!

Am neither a Nokia fan nor a critic; but a mere lover of better consumer devices and a believer of "socialistic capitalism" (I mean, a system with little or no monopoloy of one single company on any genre of gadget/product). Yes, I am an absoutely normal consumer willing to try/buy/enjoy the best gadget available around. Hence, I am bored about the excessive coverage on the Nokia-MS deal, where ever you go... My office coffee dock, my tweeps, my friends and everyone aggressively talk abt it. Yah! probably you are right, I am bothered bcos my collegues, friends, and everyone in Finland are more concerned abt Nokia's strategic shift/alliance than the obviously visible sling holding my right hand together after a small skiing accident. :-)

Let me be a bit more realistic. IMHO, consumers do not buy devices because its a symbian, palm, iOS etc. They buy a Nokia N97, or Samsung Galaxy, a SonyEricsson or an iPhone 4! For e.g. I have android (Among others) in 4 different devices but I prefer one device over others and I just love it! I did think that the model I like was simply the best feeling you could get among those I've tried.

Now, coming to the huge bash against the Nokia-MS strategic alliance. More often than not, among the people/online magazines I follow, its the emotions that speaks and seldom the facts. Facts, often twisted to justify their feelings! And, IMHO it seems Nokia (+MS) has got bad publicity from its own fanclub than by their opponents.

Many (if not all) top gadget/smartphone/mobilephone reviewers have a quarter or two ago praised WP7 much. What MS probably lacked then was a strategic alliance with a vendor and what Nokia wanted badly was better a cost effective R&D and a fast to market OS that could effectively challenge Android/iOS etc. Meego/Symbain not being a choice, I do think this alliance have greater probabability to help/rescue Nokia or better still, an absolutely symbiotic WIN-WIN for both MS and Nokia. So, clearly, both the companies seem to benefit from the tie up. And being a gadget lover and the consumer that I'm, I am thrilled! Whats probably relevant are, first, how fast Nokia brings their first WP7 model and second, how quickly Nokia-MS bring their fellow developers onboard. Again, going by the reviews (warning: i have never tried a WP7 as yet), there is much to look towards the WP7 Market place as well and I am eagerly looking for it!

May the best business model succeed!!! Amen!